29 replies to this topic

[momof1]

I received an email Saturday night from the Folsom Police Department that said:

Advisory: September 1st Sexual Battery Suspect
On September 1st, 2011 at approximately 4 p.m. the Folsom Police Department responded to a sexual battery which had just occurred on the bike trail to the rear of 1005 Blue Ravine Road. The suspect has been described as a white male, 45-50 years of age, approximately 6' tall and 185-200 pounds. The suspect was bald and had noticably crooked teeth.

Anyone with information regarding this suspect is requested to contact the Folsom Police Department anonymous tip line at (916) 930-1098 or at crimetip@folsom.ca.us
Contact Information:
Jason Browning
Office of the Chief of Police
916-930-1098
crimetip@folsom.ca.us

I wonder if there were looking for the same suspect...I know, it might be a stretch, but the timing of the email seems odd.

I would chalk that up to coincidence and not make any assumptions regarding them being linked. It's a common fallacy called "Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc" we humans tend to do. Just because 2 events occur near the same time does not mean one is the cause of the other.

[ducky]

However, in this case it is the same person and event.

I'm not getting how these two incidents are being linked. I don't think September 1st and November 4th are close enough in time to say it's the same event.

Sept. 1 a young woman was groped by a creep while walking on the bike trail close to Folsom Middle School during the daytime. All parents got an email from FCUSD the afternoon it happened.

Nov. 4 was some sort of search by helicopter in the evening hours and people who called the PD to find out what was going on were told that there was a report that someone "thought" they had witnessed some sort of crime, but that it ended up being nothing that could be confirmed.

I'm wondering why the helicopter was already hovering over this historic/central area of Folsom with no kind of message being broadcast around 8:00, 9:00, and 10:00 earlier in the evening and then zeroed in on the Big Valley area later with loud speaker announcements around 11:00 or so.

[momof1]

However, in this case it is the same person and event.

and you came to that conclusion How?

see ducky's response for an explanation of why I believe the two events are not linked, other than the timing of the email was the same day as the helicoptor overflight.

[caligirlz]

I would chalk that up to coincidence and not make any assumptions regarding them being linked. It's a common fallacy called "Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc" we humans tend to do. Just because 2 events occur near the same time does not mean one is the cause of the other.

That's what I said, it was a coincidence. Please don't make an assumption as to what I was thinking.

And I still think it is rather odd that the Sept 1 police advisory was not sent out via email until 11.05.11...2 months later. At first I thought they were behind in their email notices, but remembered I have been receiving lots of other advisories during this 2 month time period.

I'd also like to know why The Dude thinks these are the same suspects. Hey Dude, where are you?

[momof1]

That's what I said, it was a coincidence. Please don't make an assumption as to what I was thinking.

And I still think it is rather odd that the Sept 1 police advisory was not sent out via email until 11.05.11...2 months later. At first I thought they were behind in their email notices, but remembered I have been receiving lots of other advisories during this 2 month time period.

I'd also like to know why The Dude thinks these are the same suspects. Hey Dude, where are you?

I just re-read your post twice and nowhere did you mention "it was just a coincidence".

You said "...I know, it might be a stretch, but the timing of the email seems odd", which I interpret as you are thinking maybe it isn't just a coincidence. Am I wrong in what you meant by that atatement? If so, please explain how I should interpret that statement. Please, break it down word for word as to how I should come to a different conclusion. Your "but" IMO, says it all.

[Darth Lefty]

"Post Hoc Ergo Propter Hoc"

post-hoc-ergo-propter-hoc-icopter

sorry :-D

[knittychick]

Were you a West Wing fan Darth Lefty? That is the only place I have ever heard that phrase used!

[Darth Lefty]

Were you a West Wing fan Darth Lefty? That is the only place I have ever heard that phrase used!

...nnnno? I'm not sure what you are talking about. I was riffing on the thread title and momof1's impressive command of journalism-style Latin.

[knittychick]

Oops! I missed it in momof1's original post...I guess I read the clip and not her comment. That makes two times that I've heard/read it used correctly.

[daddydg]

I would say that this thread has officailly been derailed.

What was it about in the first place?

[caligirlz]

I just re-read your post twice and nowhere did you mention "it was just a coincidence".

You said "...I know, it might be a stretch, but the timing of the email seems odd", which I interpret as you are thinking maybe it isn't just a coincidence. Am I wrong in what you meant by that atatement? If so, please explain how I should interpret that statement. Please, break it down word for word as to how I should come to a different conclusion. Your "but" IMO, says it all.

yes, you were wrong in your interpretation. No, I'm not going to break it down for you word for word. Let's get back to the topic.

I would say that this thread has officailly been derailed.

What was it about in the first place?

Daddydg, you are so VERY right on.

[Robert Giacometti]

I would say that this thread has officailly been derailed.

What was it about in the first place?

Some helicopter was circling around announcing the winners of the raffle prizes from the church function on Halloween as some neighbors couldn't hear because of all the barking dogs.

[caligirlz]

Some helicopter was circling around announcing the winners of the raffle prizes from the church function on Halloween as some neighbors couldn't hear because of all the barking dogs.

Robert, Robert....you Know you are s-t-e-t-c-h-I-n-g the truth here.

[ducky]

I would say that this thread has officailly been derailed.

What was it about in the first place?

I'll give you a hint. Rather than derailed, it's gone into a yaw or perhaps off its axis:)