62 replies to this topic

[4thgenFolsomite]

After reading the headlines about housing prices dropping, I checked zillow.com for Folsom. Looks like we're down to about where we were 10 years ago! that's amazing. Any insight from the professionals? I think Folsom is doing better than many communities, but its starting to look pretty grim, especially if this continues for another two years.

[folsom500]

I was surprised when I was on Zillow yesterday and saw a number of Folsom locations were down $8500- 10,000 in the last 30 days. For the first time our house is below what we bought it for in 2002.... UGH -- good thing it is paid off...

[caligirlz]

Since I've been house shopping, I figured at a minimum, a 25% decrease.

Some seller's agents seem to take it personally IF the offer is too low in their estimation, even though it is still well within the range a bank would accept for a short sale. I'm also seeing the seller's agents act like it is THEIR house, and are really weird about their "ownership" of the listing.

Houses in the lower end of my price range look like they have never been maintained, even before the owner went upside down. What I'm talking about is much more than a cosmetic fix.

P.S. Is zillow that reliable? I always heard that it was not.

[4thgenFolsomite]

Since I've been house shopping, I figured at a minimum, a 25% decrease.

Some seller's agents seem to take it personally IF the offer is too low in their estimation, even though it is still well within the range a bank would accept for a short sale. I'm also seeing the seller's agents act like it is THEIR house, and are really weird about their "ownership" of the listing.

Houses in the lower end of my price range look like they have never been maintained, even before the owner went upside down. What I'm talking about is much more than a cosmetic fix.

P.S. Is zillow that reliable? I always heard that it was not.

I think Zillow is iffy on individual houses, which have variables, but pretty good on neighborhoods. It seems to track pretty closely with what houses actually sell for in my neighborhood. And I think it uses straight statistical sales data for its charts on towns.

last month I was working in the Santa Cruz/Aptos area. Crappy little 900 square foot houses built in 1920 that had sold for 1.5 million at the peak were now selling for high 300ks. There were very sad faces stopping by at the assessor's office and the clerk at the office seemed to have her, "oh, I'm so sorry" sympathy voice down pat. At least we weren't hit that hard. Can you imagine a bank eating a million dollar loss on one house and then multiplying that by a county's worth, or a state's worth? or a nation's worth?

[caligirlz]

I think Zillow is iffy on individual houses, which have variables, but pretty good on neighborhoods. It seems to track pretty closely with what houses actually sell for in my neighborhood. And I think it uses straight statistical sales data for its charts on towns.

I remember back during the bubble, that commenters about the bubble (before many/most others would admit there was such a thing) used Zillow to support their opinion that houses were not as worth as the owners claimed they were. It was "known" that zillow marked the value down. Now that everyone is very aware the bubble has burst, the Zestimate seems to place a higher value on individual houses.

I do find a lot of interesting information on Zillow though, such as the date of the actual price decreased, sometimes incremental...it used to be one of the places to watch the owners chase the price down as the selling prices dropped.

The other thing about Zillow, a lot of their info, such as listings, is old. I'm not sure where they are getting their information, but I used to watch the condo's in my old building be posted months after the listing was taken off the market, or sold. AND, anyone can add a listing, or add info to a listing, even if the house doesn't belong to them.

[Steve Heard]

I'll attempt to create a graph showing pricing trends for the past 10 years. Wish me luck!

Stand by.

[old soldier]

seems to me that the only time you really have to worry about the value of your house is when you are about to sell it. remember the old saying what goes down must come up

[Steve Heard]

Here's a graph I created which shows the average price per square foot for homes sold in Folsom since 2001. I used April to April, since last month was April!

Note that there have been fluctuations within each year, but this definitely shows how prices have risen and fell. Thanks Dave for helping me convert it from PDF to JPG. I tried for over an hour, he did it in about 30 seconds.

[Steve Heard]

P.S. Is zillow that reliable? I always heard that it was not.

Is it reliable? Fairly reasonably sometimes.

It is not reliable enough that a lender would ever take Zillow Zestimates into consideration when valuing a property.
Instead, lenders use appraisal, which detail property features, measurements, permits and condition, among other things, comparing them to similar properties' features, measurements, permits and conditionn, among other things. Or they use a BPO (broker price opinion), which is about $400 cheaper, whereby a broker walks through the house checking on condition, then looks up sold comps. Or they use an AVM (automated valuation model), such as those provided by Folsom's own Corelogic, which crunches lots of public data, including number of foreclosures in the area, to determine value and risk.

Zillow, to my knowledge, only goes by closed sales, so you can sometimes get an idea of what your property is worth, but don't rely on it. Short of paying for an appraisal, I think your best bet is to ask your professional Realtor to run comps and help you determine value.

[Redone]

P.S. Is zillow that reliable? I always heard that it was not.

It's probably close but the modeling or data chosen may not be the same a lender would choose for the "comparable property."


Also, I believe you can go in and edit your property info on zillow....

[Robert Giacometti]

For the first time in 7 years my house is now worth less then I paid for it. It dropped 5% last month ($22k).

I can thank all the folks doing short sales/foreclosures on my street. It really sucks that someone else's financial misfortunes also become my problem too.

Maybe market prices were out of line 7 years ago and the market is just correcting back to where the fundamentals determine the value of housing and not speculation? I'm in the same boat, like many others, so don't feel alone.

[caligirlz]

Here's a graph I created which shows the average price per square foot for homes sold in Folsom since 2001. I used April to April, since last month was April!

Note that there have been fluctuations within each year, but this definitely shows how prices have risen and fell. Thanks Dave for helping me convert it from PDF to JPG. I tried for over an hour, he did it in about 30 seconds.

Thanks Steve & Dave!

Every month your partner, Forth Hoyt, puts out a Housing Inventory Snapshot of all the counties around the Sacto region.

Is it possible to breakdown this info into cities that we are interested in, like Folsom?

I'm copying & pasting the Sac County info sent on 2/2/11 & another from 2010. I can't find the newest stats right now.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
The table represents aggregated values based on MLS data for the specified date.

Housing Inventory Snapshot January 28, 2011
Average List Price Median List Price Average Days On Market
Sacramento County, CA
Single Family under $500K $187,768 $170,000 100
Single Family over $500K $810,361 $665,000 145
Condo/Townhome < $170K $96,297 $93,000 126
Condo/Townhome > $170K $245,709 $220,000 138

Housing Inventory Snapshot March 28, 2010
Average List Price Median List Price Average Days On Market
Sacramento County, CA
Single Family under $500K $206,888 $189,750 96
Single Family over $500K $868,090 $689,000 135
Condo/Townhome < $170K $100,800 $95,000 113
Condo/Townhome > $170K $250,754 $225,000 100
--------------------------------------------------------------------

[Robert Giacometti]

After reading the headlines about housing prices dropping, I checked zillow.com for Folsom. Looks like we're down to about where we were 10 years ago! that's amazing. Any insight from the professionals? I think Folsom is doing better than many communities, but its starting to look pretty grim, especially if this continues for another two years.

Its probably best to stop looking at your house's value, unless like Old Soldier says you are in a postion that you might have to sell. As long as you like your house and can afford to live there, don't worry about the rise and fall of its value. Granted keep your eye on extremes either way as you may want to make an informed business decison at some point.

There are simple things we can do to help protect our values.

#1, Try and make as many purchases as possible in Folsom. The City is dependent on Sales tax dollars and property tax dollars to provide services to us. If they have to make cuts and City services are reduced, we will see a decline in our quality of life. This will lead to being less desirable place to live and lower house values.

#2, contact a city council member and express your concerns about the community to them. Think about the big issues we are facing and just have a simple conversations about your concerns without coming across as complaining or condescending.

#3, Try to get more involved in the community in some manner. An active comunity of giving residents will show community pride and others from outside the community will want to move here, keeping demand higher for real estate in that community.

[caligirlz]

There are simple things we can do to help protect our values.

#1, Try and make as many purchases as possible in Folsom. The City is dependent on Sales tax dollars and property tax dollars to provide services to us. If they have to make cuts and City services are reduced, we will see a decline in our quality of life. This will lead to being less desirable place to live and lower house values.

#2, contact a city council member and express your concerns about the community to them. Think about the big issues we are facing and just have a simple conversations about your concerns without coming across as complaining or condescending.

#3, Try to get more involved in the community in some manner. An active comunity of giving residents will show community pride and others from outside the community will want to move here, keeping demand higher for real estate in that community.

hey Robert,
You know it's about economics, right? maybe?

With perhaps the exception of #1, I really don't understand how doing the things you mentioned above will hold up home values.

I mean, you all complain about the city council members all the time. It sounds to me that "talking" to one (based on forum discussions) isn't going to make any difference, unless they are paid off....so what good will it do, really? do you really think talking to a corrupt city council person will result in change?

Everyone knows that home "values" were overestimated during the bubble. Very few people are going to be willing to pay bubble prices now, most can't afford it. Interestingly, those with good incomes (engineers, nurses, physicians), at least per a local realtor, are going in on the 3% FHA loans, STILL, currently. What does that tell you?

The reality is that the government is still contracting & services are being cut. Folsom isn't some little isolated island that won't be affected. We all know that. I have my own theories why Folsom has held up longer than the other communities, and they are not along these lines you are proposing. I'm not writing it all out here, but I'd be willing to tell you about it sometime if you want to know.