Well the big two drew bookend posts, Arrogate Post 1..California Chrome Post 12. We have already discussed the short run into the first turn and it's disadvantage to the outside posts. So normally, with all things being somewhat equal this would be bad for a horse. With Chrome, who has serious speed he should be ok imo. He was going to go out anyway (for the lead)...There could be a chance he gets floated wide but his superior speed makes that doubtful.
Horse racing is obviously very unpredictable but it has trends we almost look at like facts. Usually Post 1 is not a desirable post with all things being equal. Horses can get boxed in and shuffled back as the outside horses look for prominent position. Usually if they have speed and Arrogate does, they are almost forced to go out. Arrogate set a track record at Saratoga from Post 1.
What I am saying is that it looks like BOTH will have to be gunned to the lead going into a quick turn from the starting gate. Trust me this is to the delight of the rest of the field. It gives them hope imo.
The next question a handicapper is weighing is who will have the lead and who will be the stalker from close up. In the Classic, Chrome had an easy lead but he seemed to wait on Arrogate who caught him in DEEP stretch at 10 Furlongs. This race it COULD be the other way around. Both horses have shown they can win on the lead or stalking off the lead.
It remains to be seen if they break clean and what the jocks will do. My gut feeling is they cannot be too patient at all at 9 Furlongs. It will be an all out GRUELING pace and it COULD be a suicidal speed duel. I don't think either horse wants the other running within themselves as Chrome did in the Classic. Remember, even though Arrogate caught him Chrome was still the winner at the 9 F mark in that race,.
They will have to put pressure on the leader almost immediately. I will be searching for a horse capable of picking them up. I am not sure yet such a horse exists in this race. Such is the talent level the big two have over the others.
Breaking from those posts and having a speed duel is the GREAT EQUALIZER. Trust me on that. So this is really juicing up the excitement level now. This draw was THE best news for the rest of the field yet it still may be the big two finishing one two. Chrome was made the Morning Line favorite at 6-5 even though Arrogate beat him last out. This is because 9 F's favor Chrome...ON PAPER..On the racetrack we'll see. Arrogate is the second choice on the Morning Line at 7-5. The rest are all long shots...I will be updating during the week as I do my homework. There is much to consider. One other thing to note is the weather and the track condition. I can do all the homework in the world and it may rain turning the track into a sea of slop!!! Some prefer it and move way up and some hate it....It is Florida where it's been known to rain so it is what it is .....They say Golf and hitting a round ball with a round bat at 90 MPH are the toughest things in sport. Sorry but Horse Racing blows both those away in difficulty....The article by Privman below shows the rest of the PP's
Arrogate, California Chrome bookend field at post draw for Pegasus
Arrogate drew the rail and California Chrome the far outside in a field of 12 when posts were drawn on Monday for the $12 million Pegasus World Cup on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.
Art Sherman, the trainer of California Chrome, rolled his eyes when California Chrome got post 12.
"Well, at least, we won't have to be in the starting gate too long," he said. "Oh gosh, here we go again."
Arrogate was first and California Chrome second when they met in the Breeders' Cup Classic in November.
Arrogate had the rail when he won the Travers. He left quickly that day to hold position. California Chrome will have to break quickly from his post, what with a short run to the first turn going 1 1/8 miles.
"We'll take it to 'em," said Alan Sherman, Art's son and assistant. "Ain't gotta leave nothing in the tank."
This will be California Chrome's final start.
California Chrome is the 6-5 favorite on track linemaker Jay Stone's morning line, with Arrogate 7-5.
The field, from the rail out, is Arrogate, Prayer for Relief, Neolithic, Noble Bird, War Story, War Envoy, Shaman Ghost, Semper Fortis, Keen Ice, Breaking Lucky, Eragon, and California Chrome.