I haven't done the math in SMUD territory, but in El Dorado Hills (PG&E land) you'd be nuts to not have solar.
I've owned two homes in El Dorado Hills -- both with solar installations just large enough to keep us in tier 1 or tier 2 of power usage.
Prior to being granted permission-to-operate, we were on track for $600 a month electric bills in the summer months with 3 residents. With solar we're on track for an average true-up bill of $100 a month with 5 residents.
We'd likely have no monthly expense if the home were not occupied 24x7.
Now, not all months will be $600, but assuming a more reasonable monthly average, we're still on track to be net positive in 4 years. (Our 3.2kW system cost $15k)
Everyone's home and situation is unique -- finding the right balance for ROI is of course key.
I will say that in my opinion, owning is the way to go. All of the leasing deals I've seen do not fare well in the math department. And I believe trying to sell a home with leased panels would be a nightmare. An owned solar system is a positive attribute for a home, a leased system causes enough doubt and uncertainty about what you're buying during resale, I'd avoid a home in that situation.