44 replies to this topic

[rohvin]

It is rumored development may begin in the HW50 Sphere of Influence area as early as 2015 when the infrastructure pieces have been laid out. Several of my friends are concerned about investing in new and existing properties currently in Folsom as they fear prices may flatten out or even dip when SOI becomes reality. Concern seeems valid. Let us say you want to purchase a 2000sf home in 2016, would you buy a home in one of the established areas of Folsom (15-20 years old) or a brand new one with new amentities?! What do you folks think?

[andy]

The answer will depend on the person...some folks prefer established neighborhoods, some don't.

The market will be good or bad independent of the existence of homes south of 50.

[Steve Heard]

I like Andy's answer. Folsom's housing prices saw their biggest gains city-wide between 2000 to 2005, the years where we also saw the most new construction.

I saw all of the models in Empire Ranch, and was close to buying one, then stumbled upon a house in the Willow Creek Estates area, larger yard than with the new construction, and 2 oak trees, each over 100 years old. I opted for that one and still live in it.

Some folks will prefer new construction to be sure, but Folsom is such a wonderful place to live, I remain optimistic that it will remain wonderful, with housing being in high demand.

That's my two-cents.

[asbestoshills]

Folsom will have lower real estate prices as it connects with 50-it will look more like Elk Grove and less like Folsom. EDHills will be the place to live and up the hill if you want the small town feel. Folsom with its plummeting home prices is already changing in a negative way. Crime is up and it seems like more low rent people are moving in. Call me a snob, but when your house is worth 150,000 less than it should be, it sucks. Everyone is doing short sales and buying up in EDHills that we know and just dumping their old homes. I'm not sure how they do it,maybe Steve can chime in, but they are. I've friends who have secured their new mcmansions in EDHills before they even went to contract on their short sale home.

[4thgenFolsomite]

I too will take the historic district, Lake Natoma, Folsom Lake and the established neighborhoods over SO50. It's better closer to the water!

Go where it feels right. I don't know if your house should be considered an investment. It's your home. Second homes, I don't know. Hard to say what its going to look like down there, but I bet it will be pretty intensively developed.

[Robert Giacometti]

Until the economy picks up there won't be any S50! Since our region has the State as a big componet to our economic
engine and State is no where near finding a solutuion to its financial crises, this region is going to lag way behind other areas in recovery.

I'd be plenty skeptical of buying into any new development S50. I sure wouldn't want to be one the first to buy in there only to have the economy relapse and not have all the amenities I was promised not being built. Can you imagine belonging to a LLD there, but only having a few homes paying into it? OUCH!

Wait until those homes get their bills for Mello-Roos fees!

As Folsom struggles with its financial situation, building S50 is going to have HUGE impacts on services without the necesary revenues being generated to service that area. We are going to see a continued detoriation of our quality of life, thereby making Folsom LESS desirable in the future.

S50 just doesn't pencil out financially and only a FOOL would buy over there, IF they ever start building!

[ducky]

It is rumored development may begin in the HW50 Sphere of Influence area as early as 2015 when the infrastructure pieces have been laid out. Several of my friends are concerned about investing in new and existing properties currently in Folsom as they fear prices may flatten out or even dip when SOI becomes reality. Concern seeems valid. Let us say you want to purchase a 2000sf home in 2016, would you buy a home in one of the established areas of Folsom (15-20 years old) or a brand new one with new amentities?! What do you folks think?

If home values haven't risen by then, I'm trying to figure out how the builders are going to build new homes for a price that can compete with homes on the other side of 50 that may be older but have the same or more amenities and completed yards. It's not like the price of materials has gone down. I wonder how much more expensive it will be to live in the SOI area just due to paying for schools, the water supply they had to acquire, infrastructure. I imagine that will all be passed along to those residents.

[Steve Heard]

If home values haven't risen by then, I'm trying to figure out how the builders are going to build new homes for a price that can compete with homes on the other side of 50 that may be older but have the same or more amenities and completed yards. It's not like the price of materials has gone down. I wonder how much more expensive it will be to live in the SOI area just due to paying for schools, the water supply they had to acquire, infrastructure. I imagine that will all be passed along to those residents.

That's one of the key issues that folks keep missing. There are acres and acres of land on the north side of 50 waiting for development. For example, the lots on East Natoma near Blue Ravine, Blue Ravine near the Parkway, and the area off of Broadstone and Iron Point. The infrastructure is already there but they're not building. It's just not economically feasable.

They will build eventually, but only when they can make a profit. That's what they're in business for.

[supermom]

That's one of the key issues that folks keep missing. There are acres and acres of land on the north side of 50 waiting for development. For example, the lots on East Natoma near Blue Ravine, Blue Ravine near the Parkway, and the area off of Broadstone and Iron Point. The infrastructure is already there but they're not building. It's just not economically feasable.

They will build eventually, but only when they can make a profit. That's what they're in business for.

No offense, Steve, but we aren't missing that point. We, too, are also forward thinking and looking into the future. 3o years from now, Watt Ave, is going to to need an upper and lower exit and entrance ramps in order to handle the traffic. Zinfandel will be worse than sunrise is today, Folsom will be an extension of Rancho Cordova. Traffic mitigation is a huge problem. We need an expressway that runs through the center of Roseville all the way out to west Sacramento. It needs to off ramp onto the major roads at a median between US 50 and 80.

The buttress of all that growth is Folsom Lake and the lower foothillls. We need to protect this area. Keep it green. Keep it simple. Those lands should not be opened up to growth. Unless it is a park for the last surviving coyotes, skunks, and raccoon that still share the area with deer, turkeys, rattlers, and pelicans. The SOI was a sad affair. Selling out to growth instead of protecting the land that attracted Folsomites here, to begin with.

[Steve Heard]

No offense, Steve, but we aren't missing that point. We, too, are also forward thinking and looking into the future. 3o years from now, Watt Ave, is going to to need an upper and lower exit and entrance ramps in order to handle the traffic. Zinfandel will be worse than sunrise is today, Folsom will be an extension of Rancho Cordova. Traffic mitigation is a huge problem. We need an expressway that runs through the center of Roseville all the way out to west Sacramento. It needs to off ramp onto the major roads at a median between US 50 and 80.

The buttress of all that growth is Folsom Lake and the lower foothillls. We need to protect this area. Keep it green. Keep it simple. Those lands should not be opened up to growth. Unless it is a park for the last surviving coyotes, skunks, and raccoon that still share the area with deer, turkeys, rattlers, and pelicans. The SOI was a sad affair. Selling out to growth instead of protecting the land that attracted Folsomites here, to begin with.

No offense taken, but I'm a bit confused by your post.

The OP was asking about the rumor that development will begin in 2015, and that if they do, it could lower prices on existing home.

My point is that there is plenty of land north of 50 that is going undeveloped today, and that although it can happen, builders are unlikely to spend millions on building until it makes economic sense to do so, and that the additional building may not have a detrimental affect on existing home prices, as evidenced by the fact that Folsom saw its highest price increases on existing homes during the development boom around the turn of the century.

My opinion, and the OP, were not directed at traffic needs or protection of the area. We were discussing how soon they would build and what affect it would have on prices.

[supermom]

I was referring to the statement that people are missing the key points and there is land north of the SOI that isnt even developed yet. I meant that that yes we know the land is there, but still find it objectionable to zone it develo-able, regardless of whether the affordability of the the development is with the their grasps in 2 years or 30.

there are some people who wanted to see that land stay undeveloped. Not even bike trails.

The traffic is directed more to the fact that when the housing is built, it will include more traffic and add to the impact.

[MikeinFolsom]

Steve, I think the reason you purchased your current residence are very valid reasons. But where in the new development are you seeing any over large lots anymore? Or old Oak trees? Very few out here in the Parkways have the large oaks and even fewer have rather large lots.

So if I was looking for a new house with brand new choices or an established house in the Parkways........hard choice. Now off Trowbridge or something like that.......that's a different story. In the housing boom they were putting houses on .15 of an acre. And getting away with it. Hopefully the new houses on the south side won't be on postage stamp sized lots......but who knows.

[Steve Heard]

I was referring to the statement that people are missing the key points and there is land north of the SOI that isnt even developed yet. I meant that that yes we know the land is there, but still find it objectionable to zone it develo-able, regardless of whether the affordability of the the development is with the their grasps in 2 years or 30.

there are some people who wanted to see that land stay undeveloped. Not even bike trails.

I am not suggesting that the land be developed on those parcels north of 50, nor am I advocating growth. I am saying that the land is owned by developers and zoned for housing and that developers aren't building there because they can't profit from it right now. So, my point is that developers are not rushing to build south of 50. Now, that could change if the demand keeps growing but supply keeps shrinking. Current inventory is down by 75% from a year or so ago, and demand is soaring.

Personally, I love the rolling hills in this area and enjoy driving down Latrobe (although a lot of that is now being developed). I'm not in a hurry to see any land developed, but I am also supportive of people who want to build on land that they own if they are putting up their own money to do so.

Steve, I think the reason you purchased your current residence are very valid reasons. But where in the new development are you seeing any over large lots anymore? Or old Oak trees? Very few out here in the Parkways have the large oaks and even fewer have rather large lots.

So if I was looking for a new house with brand new choices or an established house in the Parkways........hard choice. Now off Trowbridge or something like that.......that's a different story. In the housing boom they were putting houses on .15 of an acre. And getting away with it. Hopefully the new houses on the south side won't be on postage stamp sized lots......but who knows.

I've seen some of the plans for south of 50, and they have a mix of home styles and sizes. Close in to the center will be smaller town-house type homes, if I recall correctly, followed by larger single-family, then there are some luxury homes and parcels which may be similar to something you might find in El Dorado Hills.

Believe it or not, there are people who prefer small yards, or even no yard at all. If people buy them, builders will build them.

[Robert Giacometti]

My point is that there is plenty of land north of 50 that is going undeveloped today, and that although it can happen, builders are unlikely to spend millions on building until it makes economic sense to do so, and that the additional building may not have a detrimental affect on existing home prices, as evidenced by the fact that Folsom saw its highest price increases on existing homes during the development boom around the turn of the century.

There has to be Job growth, before there is going to be more demand for housing.

During the time period you referenced, our economy was flying so naturally demand for housing was rising and prices were rising too. You know as well as I do, IF during those times we didn't build any more houses, prices probably would have gone even higher on the existing homes.

early buyersThere is NO doubt we have already seen the effects of S50 by not making the Land owners pay for all the planning costs associated with annexation, by having to cut back on services and raising of fees on youth sports and after school programs. These cuts will contribute to the reduction of the desirability of Folsom. ( The million dollar question is will our reductions be less or greater than our surrounding communities who face similiar issues? We all now if we did a better job of managing things we wouldn't be in this predicament, therefore our desirability would increase along with our housing values)

Its a well known trusism that the less homes a community has and the more desirable it is, typically prices will rise faster than areas with more homes and possibly not as many desirable attributes. The more housing a community has, gives more opportinities for potential newcomers to buy into, thereby keeping limits on prices increasing above typical market conditions.

There is only one Mona Lisa, if there were 10,000, they all individually wouldn't be worth what the one is today! Subsequently, building more homes on Folsom, will have an effect on prices!

There is a HUGE risk for anyone who buys into S50 in the early development stages! If the Development stops, those early buyers are going to be holding the bag for all the unfinished infrastructure!

I don't know why ANYONE would invest over there and face those uncertainities, when they can buy N50 and avoid all those potential downfalls?