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Home Prices Drop Consumers Turn Gloomy


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#1 Robert Giacometti

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 11:55 AM

I had been wondering what the consumer sentiments would be like after the holidays.

http://finance.yahoo...-140253741.html

Part of me questions if the ongoing classwarfare that is being peddled by politicians isn't having a more negative effect on the economy than we realize?

#2 Darth Lefty

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 01:13 PM

I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it.
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#3 (The Dude)

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 01:53 PM

It's media spin, trying to have a story for the 10 o'clock news that strikes fear into people which makes them watch tv more and manipulates their spending habits.

#4 (MaxineR)

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Posted 31 January 2012 - 02:40 PM

I don't know about others, but we have cut back due to raising costs in almost everything. I'd say we are in a depression, of sorts.

Five dollar coffees are no longer an option. Used books are bought rather than new ones. And the dinners out must have a coupon, or we reconsider if the place we want to eat is really worth it.

Little price increases seem little to worry about but, those extra costs add up and at the end of the month it can be a pretty good sum of money.

Rather than get a coffee out on the go, I make mine and place it in a Thermos mug...same thing with a cold drink in the summer. I think it's dumb to pay far more for a drink than one has to. I often throw a small Thermos lunch tote, filled with cold drinks in the back of my car when doing errands. Mostly because I prefer not to drink sodas with caffeine or artificial sweeteners. But this saves us a ton on drinks when we are out on hot days.

Yeah, some could call us cheap, but they'd sure love to have what's in our savings account! We earn every penny of it!

#5 Sandman

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Posted 01 February 2012 - 08:25 AM

I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter. Punks are running wild in the street and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it.


And ther is no better sign that things are bad than record numbers of guns being sold these days. I bought a 22 rifle for my son for Christmas and the guy who did all my paperwork told me that over 2000 guns had been purchased in California on that day alone accordng to the state registry database he uses to file papers.

#6 KathyP

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 08:37 PM

I'm not a "doom and gloomer" but things will get a lot worse before they get better IMHO! The housing market is a mess and I have to laugh at my agent newsletters he sends me every month. Year after year he says things are on the upswing and his own personal "forecast" is that home prices will be on the rise and that we've hit bottom. Ha, he said that three years ago.

The fact is that Folsom home prices are continuing to decline and have you noticed how the For Sale signs seem to stay in the front yard a little longer now! I'm upside down in my home by over a $100K and I put 30% down!
My husband and I are thinking about walking away. It doesn't make sense to pour money into an "asset" that is declining in value every month.

We love CA but we are realizing that we can no longer afford to live here. We use to have a house in AZ that was twice the size of the one here in Folsom BUT we pay TWICE the property taxes in Folsom ($6,400 last year). I mean, that's crazy. Before we left AZ people told us we were nuts to move here. I guess they get the last laugh!

#7 rpo

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 10:43 PM

We love CA but we are realizing that we can no longer afford to live here. We use to have a house in AZ that was twice the size of the one here in Folsom BUT we pay TWICE the property taxes in Folsom ($6,400 last year). I mean, that's crazy. Before we left AZ people told us we were nuts to move here. I guess they get the last laugh!


Property tax rates are actually significantly higher in Arizona on average than in Folsom. Maricopa County averages about double the tax rate as compared to Folsom.

#8 The Average Joe

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 10:56 PM

But the housing is cheaper...

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#9 nomad

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 11:00 PM

But the housing is cheaper...


Same way in Texas, huge cheap houses (but built well), but high property taxes and energy bills thru the roof since you need to run the a/c 10 months or more a year.

#10 rpo

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 11:21 PM

But the housing is cheaper...


The amount the average person spends on housing is much more proportional to income (what can I afford) than the cost of comparable housing itself (what do I need). In other words, someone who spent $250k on a home in one geographic area is likely to spend $250k on on a home in a cheaper or more expensive location if income is the same, especially if housing is cheaper in the new region. The higher the income, the less that "need" factors into the equation.

#11 rpo

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Posted 05 February 2012 - 11:41 PM

To follow up on the Arizona vs California property tax rate discussion, here are the average rates by state:

http://www.nytimes.c...optaxrates.html

California averages 0.68% and Arizona averages 1.21%. To make it worse, Arizona has raised property tax rates twice since that article was written, and California has not raised them at all.

#12 EDF

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 07:47 AM

I'm not a "doom and gloomer" but things will get a lot worse before they get better IMHO! The housing market is a mess and I have to laugh at my agent newsletters he sends me every month. Year after year he says things are on the upswing and his own personal "forecast" is that home prices will be on the rise and that we've hit bottom. Ha, he said that three years ago.

The fact is that Folsom home prices are continuing to decline and have you noticed how the For Sale signs seem to stay in the front yard a little longer now! I'm upside down in my home by over a $100K and I put 30% down!
My husband and I are thinking about walking away. It doesn't make sense to pour money into an "asset" that is declining in value every month.

We love CA but we are realizing that we can no longer afford to live here. We use to have a house in AZ that was twice the size of the one here in Folsom BUT we pay TWICE the property taxes in Folsom ($6,400 last year). I mean, that's crazy. Before we left AZ people told us we were nuts to move here. I guess they get the last laugh!



I've been selling real estate since I got my license in December 1980...which was like the very top of the market back then...

I will agree with you that this is probably the worst recession caused by "guv-ment" since I've been doing this so let me chime in here with an opinion.

This recession will not really slow the growth of "family formations" so there's going to be a demand for housing when the economy really gets better. If you have noticed they really haven't built much if any new housing in the region for several years... sure there's some building going on but not much.

The fact of the matter is, there's trillions on the sidelines right now looking for a place to invest and the best thing out there is Real Estate...

Just about everytime I submit an offer on an income property like a duplex or a single family fixer upper we have to compete with "multiple offers"..

Yea... we're all upside down, but that's not going to last forever... I heard the same crap back in early 81 and 82... heard it some more back in 93-96 and now today...

Anyway... if you start looking around you are seeing signs of some growth.. you don't get the Palladio filling up their expensive spots if there wasn't a market for them...

So bottom line is don't despair... the weather is great here... the only problem we have...? WE LIVE IN A STATE RUN BY A BUNCH OF SOCIALIST COMMIE LIBERALS THAT THINK WE DON'T PAY ENOUGH IN TAXES AND NOT "GREEN ENOUGH"...

Hang in there is all I can say...

#13 dimeracer

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 09:39 AM

My husband and I are thinking about walking away. It doesn't make sense to pour money into an "asset" that is declining in value every month.


It makes lots of sense sense to the bank to whom you made the loan commitment.

#14 Steve Heard

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 10:11 AM

Mornin' Y'all! I've been away from the forum for a week or so. Glad to see everyone's playing nice. Anyway, let me throw in my two-cents worth:

I had been wondering what the consumer sentiments would be like after the holidays.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-prices-drop-more-expected-140253741.html


I truly don't know what to make of it anymore. There is constant contradiction and confusion coming from the media. For example, on January 20 the LA Times reported "Home sales rose nationally in December, marking the third consecutive month that the market has shown improvement. Previously owned homes were sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.61 million units, up 5.0% from November and 3.6% from December a year prior, according to the National Assn. of Realtors. “The market for single-family homes picked up in the second half of 2011, after being stuck near the bottom for nearly three years,” Patrick Newport, an economist with IHS Global Insight, wrote in a note. “This pickup is real, but the road to recovery will be a slow one.”

On January 25, the Financial Times wrote, "Pending home sales in the US fell more sharply than anticipated in December, underlining the precarious state of the housing market which has lagged behind the slow but firmer recovery in other sectors of the world’s biggest economy.

The National Association of Realtor’s index of pending home sales dropped 3.5 per cent in December following a 7.3 per cent surge in November that had outpaced forecasts."
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/5e338732-4767-11e1-b646-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz1lclcTNS8

If you google around, you'll find articles predict growth and those which predict gloom and doom from the same data.

All I can do as a Realtor is work with what I've got and observe what's happening in my market place. Whether that market is good or bad depends on one's perspective.

If you owe more than your home is worth, it is bad, and there are lots of folks who owe more than their homes are worth. It may be many, many years before houses come back to 2005-2006 levels.

If you are a buyer, the market is good, and for the same reason it's bad for equity sellers; prices are low.

If you are a flipper, the market is good (as long as you buy right and don't over-improve for the neighborhood), because you can pick up homes in need of repair fairly cheaply and there is a strong market for the finished product.

If you are a low-ball buyer, the market is bad, as there is so much competition, investor properties are actually ending up in bidding wars.

If you are someone who had a foreclosure or short-sale in the past, the market can be good, depending on how long it's been. Some of these folks are now buying homes for 30 to 40% less than when they lost theirs several years ago.

If you are a Realtor who relies on people calling you out of the blue to have you sell them a house, it's bad. If you're a Realtor who is honest and who developed a good reputation and constantly seeks out new business, it's good.

I'm not a "doom and gloomer" but things will get a lot worse before they get better IMHO! The housing market is a mess and I have to laugh at my agent newsletters he sends me every month. Year after year he says things are on the upswing and his own personal "forecast" is that home prices will be on the rise and that we've hit bottom. Ha, he said that three years ago.

The fact is that Folsom home prices are continuing to decline and have you noticed how the For Sale signs seem to stay in the front yard a little longer now! I'm upside down in my home by over a $100K and I put 30% down!
My husband and I are thinking about walking away. It doesn't make sense to pour money into an "asset" that is declining in value every month.


I won't make any predictions about the future, but I do have my opinion on what's been happening in recent months. I don't know if it will get worse before it gets better, but that's certainly possible.

For about 5 years we've been hearing of the 'shadow inventory'; distressed homes which had not yet been foreclosed on, and those which had been but the banks were holding off the market. Each year there are predictions that this will be the year they all come flooding into the market. It has yet to happen, for a variety of reasons, including but not limited to bulk sales, loan modifications, increased short-sale approvals, renting rather than selling.

As for signs staying in the front yard a little longer, if varies by type of sale. Years ago we didn't have short-sale and bank-owned (REO) properties. For the past 3 months in Folsom, the average DOM (days on market) for short-sales has been 149, for REO 46,, and for equity sales only 36 days.

2011 saw the highest number of homes sold since 2006 and the lowest number of homes on the market since 2004.

It is interesting to note that usually when inventory is down and sales are up, prices are increasing, but this is not true for today's market.

And so it goes.

No one can convince me that the market has turned, bottomed out or stabilized, but I do know that demand is outpacing supply right now, and more buyers are entering the market.

Steve Heard

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#15 aztransplant

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Posted 06 February 2012 - 10:28 AM

Re the AZ vs. CA property taxes, when we moved here in 2005 we were paying about $700 per year in property taxes in AZ (we paid county property taxes, but no city property taxes). As you can imagine, moving here to a house about the same square footage (1300 sq. ft) on a smaller lot we were paying about 6 times as much for property taxes.

BUT, would we ever move back to AZ? HE!! NO. We love it here in Folsom. There is no comparison.




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