
I like to see them come out on the track and make sure all looks well. Some horses wash out and lose energy in the heat before the race is even run...Sometimes they act up and look unruly, also expending valuable fuel...then there are weather conditions and in Florida they can change hourly...Normally that has been my routine except when real life interferes as it will tomorrow. At that time I either pass on the race or roll the dice. I am rolling the dice.
So, what i've come up with is that California Chrome WILL defeat Arrogate!


You have to be bold playing horses. You have to go with your gut based on the facts as you see them..Let me explain why I am going with him...
First off CC is in tremendous shape. Racing shape compared to Arrogate's workout tab which is exceptional..I have no doubt Baffert will have him as ready as he can be BUT at crunch time when they are eyeballing each other I believe CC will have more in the tank. I base that on him being a fully grown 6 year old who has a really nice prep race under his belt...
Yes it was against lesser types of horses but THE WAY he did it stays on my mind..It is not easy to lose ground racing wide as CC did for nearly the entire way. Great ones can do that and still win against lesser BUT, he didn't just win after that wide trip, HE EXPLODED and drew away to win by 12!
Arrogate needed everything he had at 10F's WHEN he was in racing shape to defeat Chrome. I don't think he can do it again off workouts. Especially at 9 f's. Not against this horse. I feel he will have to work nearly as hard from Post 1 as Chrome will have to work from post 12.
Ok, ....I will concede the quick turn worries me as does the record for wins from Post 12 (lousy) for CC BUT, this is his Swan Song and his last workout was VERY Sharp (5 F, 58 4/5 Breezing) to put the cherry on top of having had a prep race under his belt already..
CC has NEVER been better or sharper,,,,Because it is only 9 F's I feel he can stay wide till the backstretch and be sitting in the Cat Bird's seat, 3rd or 4th as he drops in..
Arrogate will have to be busy early as well and deal with Noble Bird for at least the 1st quarter if not half...By that time Victor should have CC settled and ready to push the button. CC is a push button horse too..You can treat him like a car,

I believe he has been a great horse and will Crown that greatness by getting his revenge against Arrogate...
I do think Arrogate may be better this year than last..Most times 4 year olds are BUT..this IS first time out for him this year with no prep and he is meeting a RAZOR Sharp Champion...
I am not looking to make a fortune. I want to turn $100 into about $350 - $400...The bet is a $100 straight Exacta 12 over 1...If I get a price of 6 - 8 dollars on that bet I will reach the above goal..I could get a $10 dollar price but I think $8 is more realistic...This is no race to reverse the exacta (normally a prudent thing to do)...prices are not great to begin with. I have to put my eggs in one basket..
With my remaining $50 I am going to play two $20 Trifectas and one $10 trifecta hoping to add to my exacta spoils,,,,For $20 I will play a straight Trifecta 12 - 1- 9 who is Keen Ice and he should be good for 3rd....
If not my second $20 Trifecta will be 12 - 1 - 4 who is Noble Bird..I feel in my gut that he just may be on the lead longer than most think and be good enough to hang on for 3rd,,,
With my last $10 I will go 12 - 1 - 11 who is Eragon, the Argentinian horse...Even though he is breaking from Post 11 he is a closer and it wont matter much to him as he goes to the rail trailing before launching his move which I admit I am hoping he has quality enough to pass tiring horses for 3rd....I am reaching here, especially with most of his races having been on grass.
For those not in the know about betting yet interested in the race as fans of CC, My $100 exacta means I will have it 50X's if it comes in..So at a price of $8 I will collect $400..
The $20 Trifectas mean I will get the trifecta price 10 Xs IF..and that is a big if..A $40 price on a trifecta would get another $400..Its' tough to know what trifectas will pay. The exacta you can guess more or less but trifecta pools are tricky...
The $10 exacta I have means I will hit that 5Xs..If Eragon is 3rd I could get a $100 Trifecta 5 Xs...Just guessing but the Trifectas are my "Gravy" bets anyway...I expect to hit the exacta but a trifecta would be gravy on top..Win or lose I am watching as a fan. These kind of match ups don't come along every day. It is indeed an historic race and COULD become a new trend with owners shelling out..A successful outcome would mean the Pegasus will have another try next year and most likely Arrogate will be the horse to beat in that one. CC will be taking care of the ladies

Thanks to all who followed this thread and are fans of CC..He WILL have his work cut out for him against another great horse but I feel like he is ready to leave it ALL on the race track in his final race. His Swan Song. And I believe the distance is the key.
GL to all who play and please, don't follow me, I usually play long shots and lose a lot. When I win I usually get it back and then some....Not in this race though. I am playing logic and form as I see it..
Trails will do a recap of the race on Saturday night or Sunday Morning. Lets hope they all have a safe trip and hope you will root for a great California Bred horse too


