8 replies to this topic

[Duke]

NEW YORK (Fortune) 12/19/06 -- This time last year the big question was whether the real estate market was going to slow down. Today it's "How bad will it get?"

100 top markets and how they'll fare in 2007
The numbers tell a confusing story. For existing homes, buyers are trickling back into the market - sales inched upward in October even as the median home price fell by 3.5 percent, the largest year-over-year drop on record. And that comes after price declines in August and September.

On the new-home front, sales in October fell, but the median price crept upward. For homebuilders, cancellations are up and orders down.

"It's possible that the broader housing market will firm in the next few months, that the worst is over," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "But that to me is a dead-cat bounce." In a word, yikes.

So Fortune asked Zandi's group and real estate valuation company Fiserv Lending Solutions to give us their take on what lies ahead for housing in the country's 100 largest metropolitan areas.

6 strategies to survive the real estate bust
The picture, as you probably have guessed, isn't pretty. In 2007, 36 of the 100 biggest markets are expected to see price declines. For 2008 that number rises a notch to 37.

******The area poised for the biggest fall in 2007? Stockton, Calif., where prices are expected to drop by 7.1 percent and another 5.3 percent in 2008. If the forecast holds true, a home purchased in Stockton today for $350,000 will be worth a mere $307,917 two years from now. And that doesn't account for the additional toll inflation can take on the true value of your asset.*****

[bishmasterb]

Finally, a realistic report that admits we could be in for several years of declining values...not even considering inflation.

[jagayman]

When are you buying back in, Bish?

[Eric]

Stockton ≠ Folsom (or Sacramento)

[Sonny]

Prices in our area have already fallen about 15% to 20% from the peak in 2005. The numbers that we usually read about are a year behind.

[Chad Vander Veen]

It was bound to happen when people realized they moved to Stockton

[bishmasterb]

When are you buying back in, Bish?

My completely uneducated guess is that rental properties in general won't be cash-flow neutral/positive until 2008 or 2009.

[cw68]

Prices in our area have already fallen about 15% to 20% from the peak in 2005. The numbers that we usually read about are a year behind.

I don't think prices have fallen that much across the board. I don't think most houses that sold for $575k in 2005 would now sell for $488k. (15% reduction) I think it's more like 5-10%.

[Duke]

And....

[SacBee Biz Sec, today, Edited for brevity):

..."Sacramento-area sales prices are expected to keep falling, up to another 10 percent during 2007 before stabilizing, according to predictions last month by Mike Lyon, head of Sacramento-based Lyon Real Estate. The chief culprit: excess inventory, with 12,652 homes on the market in El Dorado, Placer, Sacramento and Yolo counties, according to real estate researcher TrendGraphix."...