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#16 The Average Joe

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 03:40 PM



Falls under the so what category. CO2 has risen and fallen dramatically over the millinea without mans interference.

MOST of the increase is from burning fossil fuels. However, a warming planet such as ours will warm the oceans which will allow less co2 to be dissolved in it. That in turn will promote "greening" of  the planet as plants absorb more co2 (this is happening)

 IN A CLOSED SYSTEM. Earth is not a closed system  Here is one area where the computer models have really failed. They ASSUME a climate sensitivity of around 3 degrees (if you double the co2, after the climate stabilizes, you will have +- 3 degrees increase).. HOWEVER, most scientists agree that without feedback loops, the sensitivity is only 1 degree.  SO here is where the issue comes in. There are MANY feedback factors (which can be positive or negative), but lets just look at the big three. Clouds, sea ice, and water vapor.
 

Clouds can be a positive or negative depending on altitude and moisture content. There is frankly not enough data to accurately determine the roll of clouds. So one variable is impossible to quantify.  
Sea ice is another. Generally, less sea ice is a negative, as the more sea ice you have, the more sunlight is reflected, and the cooler the localized ocean becomes, which affects the global ocean circulation, which affects global climate. Alterations to circulation can have positive or negative influences on temperature. So, another variable which is impossible to quantify
Water vapor in the atmosphere can be affected by so may things that it is most certainly impossible to quantify as a variable.
SO the big three feedback sources are unquantifiable. They are guesses put into computers and the results are blasted across social media

  • Monitoring climate conditions to find that recent warming of the Earth is correlated to and follows rising CO2 emissions (research beginning in 1930s)

Womp womp.. This is demonstrably FALSE, and is AL Gore's contribution to misinformation. Ice cores (the proxy best used for lonnng geologic timescales show that CO2 FOLLOWS teperature rise by a few hundred years.  So yes, CO2 IS correlated to temperature, however, it is not CAUSAL to temperature (quite the opposite according to both Greenland and Antarctica ice cores)

HAS NOT BEEN DONE. Impossible to do.  There are variables that can influence climate that we know about. I will give them letters for an equation
 
SOlar variability (A), Milankovitch cycles (B) ,Cosmic rays ©, AMO, PDO, etc Ocean cycles (D), Cloud formation (E), Methane and water vapor variability (F), Volcanic activity (G), Burning of fossil fuels (H).  There are also some we know nothing about, but we don't know what we don't know.
So let's make an equation A+B+C+D+E+F+G+H= total climate change.  OK. SO to figure out how much burning of fossil fuels (H) affects climate, we have a simple equation 
H = total climate change minus A+B+C+D+E+F+G.
Herein lies the problem. A through G can only be estimated, and the estimates vary wildly So you have at least SEVEN MAJOR forcing factors (and a whole bunch of minor and unknown ones) that are impossible to accurately quantify. THERE IS NO FEASIBLE WAY to determine CO2 effect on a chaotic climate system without quantifying EVERY other variable. WHich leads us to...

The aggregate success rate of those computer models predicting ACTUAL climate variance is < 3%.  EVEN INCLUDING ERROR BARS, the actual numbers fall outside the lowest range of predicted temperatures!  Why? Those pesky, unaccounted for variables from above.  If one variable is slightly off, your prediction will be slightly off. If you fail to account for ANY of those variables (and almost NONE of the models include cloud cover for example), your prediction will be substantially off. IF YOU HAVE SEVEN VARIABLES that are off, your predictions are worthless. WHich is shown in the >97% failure rate to accurately predict actual measurements.

The consensus myth has been debunked many, many times.  It is simply not true. 
 
(Waiting for some trashy, biased report from Breitbart, Infowars, or the Koch Brothers)   :who-me:
 
BTW, when I said show your work, I didn't mean copy and paste drivel from some pro AGW website. I want you to MAKE YOUR CASE that CO2 is driving catastrophic climate change.


"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive" -- C.S. Lewis

 

If the only way to combat "global warming" was to lower taxes, we would never hear of the issue again. - Anonymous

 

"Society in every state is a blessing, but Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one" — Thomas Paine, 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘰𝘯 𝘚𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘦 (1776)

 


#17 Chris

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 04:01 PM

Excellent Joe....!  But sadly you will not be listened to....  I hear ya...  But sadly people pick and choose only the "science" and "scientists" that re-enforce their belief.   Sadly in Tio Vinny's case he has fallen for false science driven by a real political agenda.   Chris


1A - 2A = -1A


#18 slowthegrowth

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 04:35 PM

Great post Joe... and completely correct reply by Chris.

To imagine that facts and login would actually work with liberals like Vinny is wishful thinking.... which is why I simply ignore him altogether.

#19 UncleVinnys

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Posted 29 August 2019 - 09:39 PM

Well done, Joe.
A seemingly authoritative response.

Chris is right:
"sadly people pick and choose only the "science" and "scientists" that re-enforce their belief."

 

Sad too, that so little "progress" is made here.

No minds are changed. It seems few minds are even open to change.
Some even exult in what appears to be the crushing of another soul.

 

Truth is, no one is hurt. No one can be crushed.

Truth is we are all gods in training.
You can support policies that destroy the earth if you want to.

It cannot hurt me or you.

It's all a transient, temporary illusion.
We can simply build another world and live in another body there,

or perhaps live in a vehicle with wings next time.

 

There is a great sense of peace in giving up the battle.

Easy to do when you know the fires in Brazil are an illusion.

War and strife are illusions. Even the planet is a temporary mental construct.

If fact we are energy, which can never be destroyed.

Remember E=MC2.  Matter is just energy slowed down.

Just another way of saying we are all spirit.

 

Bless you.       :saint:         Hope you all eventually see the truth.

 


1 God: 1 World: 1 People     :peaceman: 


#20 The Average Joe

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 12:00 PM

Have said forever that it is pretty arrogant to think we are "destroying the Earth." Please, the Earth will be just fine long after man is gone.  Unless there is a nuclear winter or asteroid impact, or supervolcano eruption, or future alien invasion, the Earth will keep chugging along until our sun goes red giant.  Nothing MAN can do will have any long term geologic effect on the Earth.  I figure man has between 50-100 years before we are faced with existential crisis on what life is.  Once we "create" sentient AI, we will no longer be the apex life form on Earth. I predict there will be a fusing of tech and organic beings that will displace us in the near future (100-150 years). Heck, we may willingly do it to ourselves...

 

Course, if we figure our gravity, all bets are off as mankind will splinter into 1000 different groups, each of which pursuing it's own vision in the stars...


"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive" -- C.S. Lewis

 

If the only way to combat "global warming" was to lower taxes, we would never hear of the issue again. - Anonymous

 

"Society in every state is a blessing, but Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one" — Thomas Paine, 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘰𝘯 𝘚𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘦 (1776)

 


#21 UncleVinnys

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 01:31 PM

At least that's a hopeful view.

Still not right to abuse the systems that sustain the earth.


1 God: 1 World: 1 People     :peaceman: 


#22 Chris

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 06:08 PM

 

 

I am still waiting on that Ice Age we were promised in the 1970's by the same people......  They said it was going to get much colder and very soon....!  That was their "consensus".   By the way, you do realize that we are in a warming period in the middle of an Ice Age do you not....?  Yep, you, me, Slow, Aces, Joe, Rose and even Mays are all living in an Ice Age.  And we will die in one....  And so will our great, great, great, great, great, great Grandchildren.    Chris

Tio Vinny, you seemed to have ignored this post above...   Your thoughts....?   Do you realize what I stated above is actually the truth, real science, actually is reality and for the past maybe 10,000 to 15,000 years.  It won't go away if you ignore it or me....  It really won't....   Sadly, the Mastodons and Woolly Mammoths have gone missing from this equation.  We can't hunt them, been hunted out........   And those long tooth Sabre Tigers......   Now those would have been a problem, they bite back.........   If ever in LA, go to the La Brea Tar Pits.....    Very cool....   And as a Geologist I can not get enough of that stuff.........   Could spend days there...   There and the Getty.     Chris

 

.yajVphqt9vcAACCI94eQw.jpg


1A - 2A = -1A


#23 The Average Joe

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 06:33 PM

I will say that I spent a fair amount of my childhood going to the LA museums of Science and Industry (science!) the LA  Natural History museum (dinos!) and the La Brea tar pits.  Also took kids to tar pits when we went to see the King Tut tour.  Very cool for the curious! Although LA has some really crappy neighborhoods not far from these locations...<wonders how the fabulous rose gardens are doing with all the bum urine>


"Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the good of its victims may be the most oppressive" -- C.S. Lewis

 

If the only way to combat "global warming" was to lower taxes, we would never hear of the issue again. - Anonymous

 

"Society in every state is a blessing, but Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state an intolerable one" — Thomas Paine, 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘰𝘯 𝘚𝘦𝘯𝘴𝘦 (1776)

 


#24 UncleVinnys

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Posted 30 August 2019 - 07:51 PM

Tio Vinny, you seemed to have ignored this post above...   Your thoughts....? 

 

Yeah, the thrill is gone.    :wave2:

I realized that torturing other people and other people attempting to torture me is not a winning formula.

I realized (from Buddhism, and Course in Miracles) that this world is one big illusion.

That we are all Children of God, and should not be arguing with each other.

All the so-called "evils" of the world are neutral and have absolutely no effect on the purity of our souls.

Want to fight? Go ahead: Knock yourself out.      :headbang:

I got a different mission.   :)


1 God: 1 World: 1 People     :peaceman: 


#25 slowthegrowth

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Posted 31 August 2019 - 08:47 AM

Like every other "the sky is falling" screed, just follow the money.

#26 Chris

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Posted 31 August 2019 - 07:33 PM

 

Yeah, the thrill is gone.    :wave2:

I realized that torturing other people and other people attempting to torture me is not a winning formula.

I realized (from Buddhism, and Course in Miracles) that this world is one big illusion.

That we are all Children of God, and should not be arguing with each other.

All the so-called "evils" of the world are neutral and have absolutely no effect on the purity of our souls.

Want to fight? Go ahead: Knock yourself out.      :headbang:

I got a different mission.   :)

So you admit to being a "climate denier".   Yep, you are living in an Ice Age, no doubt about it, scientifically speaking.  But yet you will not admit it, and you won't admit that we are in a slight warming period within that Ice Age that you currently live in.  Did any of those "97% of scientists" ever tell you that....?   No, no they did not.  Neither will the current liberal biased MSM.  But I will tell you.  Do you believe me or not....?   I hope you do, the science does not lie.  The real science that is, not the made up "liberal", politically motivated, weird science.  Chris


1A - 2A = -1A


#27 UncleVinnys

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Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:17 PM

Good questions, Chris.

But it's like asking "Is Darth Vader really Luke's father?" 

The whole movie is made up.                                                                     :idea:

It's simply an interesting story with some valuable lessons.

 

 

 

May the Force be with you.


1 God: 1 World: 1 People     :peaceman: 


#28 PeteS

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Posted 01 September 2019 - 12:54 AM

Well, ain't this great.  I cruise thru to see how this political Nowhereville is doing (horrible BTW), and trip over an even smaller community (population = 4) of pinheads arguing 'bout climate.

 

One person (Vinny) is smokin' too much pot, thinks everything is an illusion.  Never graduated from the 60's, did ya?

 

Another person (Chris) thinks science hasn't advanced past the 70's.  Put down the bottle.  Make a visit to this century, will ya?

 

Another person (slow) lives up to his name by adding nothing.  Take a stand on something, please.

 

And finally we got Joe thinkin' he's smarter than every scientist on earth.  And he uses all that brainpower to remodel bathrooms.  Thinks climate crap is all a hoax, but thinks AI will take over the world soon.  Come on, Mr. Scientist, prove it.  Oh, and show your work.  

 

This place is an ever shrinking pocket of scientific ignorance.  Be back in a few weeks to see if it's disappeared - poof! 



#29 UncleVinnys

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Posted 01 September 2019 - 05:40 AM

Ha, ha!
Funny assessment, Pete  - good that you can mock and laugh at the fray.

And what about yourself? Self-appointed sheriff?

 

Not just me, but certainly the greatest figures in history have posited the material plane as illusion.

Lao Tse in the Tao te Ching, Plato in the allegory of the cave,

Jesus saying "My kingdom is not of this world," The Mayans (Maya means illusion), etc. etc.

 

Talk to someone who meditates often, or someone who has had an out-of-body experience,

or a near-death experience ( https://www.nderf.org/Archives/exceptional.html )

 

To be without a body is your natural state.  You'll see - sooner or later.
Crazy old Vinny just might have a kernel of truth!   :wave2: 


1 God: 1 World: 1 People     :peaceman: 


#30 UncleVinnys

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Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:30 AM

This discussion has gotten way off topic.  (My fault.)

 

If anyone wants to debate the metaphysical aspects of politics,

I've started a different discussion for that topic.

 

http://www.tomatopag...showtopic=43890


1 God: 1 World: 1 People     :peaceman: 





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