68 replies to this topic

[maestro]

"Godzilla" El Nino not delivering snow ---    but high temperatures and sunshine.

 

https://www.washingt...-super-el-nino/

[nomad]

"Godzilla" El Nino not delivering snow ---    but high temperatures and sunshine.

 

https://www.washingt...-super-el-nino/

 

Dry warm spells with El Nino are very common and we haven't even come close to a historically long stretch of that yet. 

 

Stop the artificial anxiety!

[2 Aces]

Dry warm spells with El Nino are very common

Can you provide data/studies to back that up ?? It would be interesting to read that.

Thank you in advance.

[aztransplant]

 

Dry warm spells with El Nino are [very] common

 

Not uncommon for a dry spell in Sacramento during an El Niño year

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

http://www.sacbee.co...le59528466.html

[maestro]

If you knew how the US Army Corps of Engineers is currently operating, and what Oversight they do NOT HAVE from their lonely Inspector General with a staff of one --   you'd wonder at the wisdom of USACE and Reclamation operations too.     Who uses 1940's, 50', data to determine our WATER SUPPLY?????

 

 

http://www.sacbee.co...le60419396.html

 

Outstanding article on American River/ Folsom Reservoir operations.     Quotes:

 

•  
• Northern California’s El Niño winter has been on pause lately, with barely a drop of rain for two weeks. Yet federal dam operators recently increased the flows out of Folsom Lake by thousands of acre-feet a day as a precaution against flooding. They did so even as the reservoir sat 40 percent empty.
• The dam operators weren’t acting on their own initiative. They were adhering to a 60-year-old manual, drawn up by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, that requires them to release water when Folsom Lake rises to a specified height. The requirement holds even if no major storms are forecast, and the state is trying to conserve water during the fifth year of an epic drought.
• Similar operating manuals, all created by the Army Corps, govern flood-control releases at 33 dams in California. The vast majority haven’t been updated since at least the 1980s; Folsom’s manual dates to the year the reservoir opened, in 1956.
• Now, a small but growing chorus of Sacramento-area water managers and hydrology experts says it’s time to revise the guidelines to permit more flexibility on water storage, particularly given a warming climate expected to bring more frequent and longer dry spells.
• “There’s this … simple solution that really simply boils down to updating your manuals,” said Ann Willis, a researcher at the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.
• Read more here: http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

• “If we can’t trust people to make forecast-based decisions, then you need new staff,” said Shauna Lorance, general manager of the San Juan Water District, which relies on Folsom Lake to supply its 160,000 retail and wholesale customers.
• At the nearby Fair Oaks Water District, the heavy releases from Folsom sparked similar frustration.
• “Customers see water being dumped down the river,” said General Manager Tom Gray. “If we’re in the dire straits of a drought, shouldn’t you be looking at actual (weather) projections? Shouldn’t you maybe not use the regular playbook?”
• Read more here: http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

 

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

The reservoir’s operating manual, which the Army Corps released to The Sacramento Bee, includes a key chart consisting of a series of lines penned on graph paper and dated “24 May 1956.”

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

US Army Corps of Engineers spokesperson:

The Folsom manual indicates the guidelines are based on the limitations of the dam, the size of the drainage area above and below it, and precipitation patterns from the 1930s, ’40s and ’50s.

Jones, the Army Corps flood manager in Sacramento, said changing the guidelines would require complex and costly engineering and environmental studies. Each time a dam’s flood-control manual is updated, the reviews “can easily cost several million dollars per project,” she said.

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

 

 

[john]

long range forecasts are a crapshoot at best, but March looks like it will be similar to January... 

http://www.accuweath...monyr=3/01/2016

[tony]

If you knew how the US Army Corps of Engineers is currently operating, and what Oversight they do NOT HAVE from their lonely Inspector General with a staff of one --   you'd wonder at the wisdom of USACE and Reclamation operations too.     Who uses 1940's, 50', data to determine our WATER SUPPLY?????

 

 

http://www.sacbee.co...le60419396.html

 

Outstanding article on American River/ Folsom Reservoir operations.     Quotes:

 

•  
• Northern California’s El Niño winter has been on pause lately, with barely a drop of rain for two weeks. Yet federal dam operators recently increased the flows out of Folsom Lake by thousands of acre-feet a day as a precaution against flooding. They did so even as the reservoir sat 40 percent empty.
• The dam operators weren’t acting on their own initiative. They were adhering to a 60-year-old manual, drawn up by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, that requires them to release water when Folsom Lake rises to a specified height. The requirement holds even if no major storms are forecast, and the state is trying to conserve water during the fifth year of an epic drought.
• Similar operating manuals, all created by the Army Corps, govern flood-control releases at 33 dams in California. The vast majority haven’t been updated since at least the 1980s; Folsom’s manual dates to the year the reservoir opened, in 1956.
• Now, a small but growing chorus of Sacramento-area water managers and hydrology experts says it’s time to revise the guidelines to permit more flexibility on water storage, particularly given a warming climate expected to bring more frequent and longer dry spells.
• “There’s this … simple solution that really simply boils down to updating your manuals,” said Ann Willis, a researcher at the UC Davis Center for Watershed Sciences.
• Read more here: http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

 

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

• “If we can’t trust people to make forecast-based decisions, then you need new staff,” said Shauna Lorance, general manager of the San Juan Water District, which relies on Folsom Lake to supply its 160,000 retail and wholesale customers.
• At the nearby Fair Oaks Water District, the heavy releases from Folsom sparked similar frustration.
• “Customers see water being dumped down the river,” said General Manager Tom Gray. “If we’re in the dire straits of a drought, shouldn’t you be looking at actual (weather) projections? Shouldn’t you maybe not use the regular playbook?”
• Read more here: http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

 

________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

The reservoir’s operating manual, which the Army Corps released to The Sacramento Bee, includes a key chart consisting of a series of lines penned on graph paper and dated “24 May 1956.”

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

 

US Army Corps of Engineers spokesperson:

The Folsom manual indicates the guidelines are based on the limitations of the dam, the size of the drainage area above and below it, and precipitation patterns from the 1930s, ’40s and ’50s.

Jones, the Army Corps flood manager in Sacramento, said changing the guidelines would require complex and costly engineering and environmental studies. Each time a dam’s flood-control manual is updated, the reviews “can easily cost several million dollars per project,” she said.

Read more here: http://www.sacbee.co...l#storylink=cpy

 

 

 

Yes, the wheels of bureaucracy spin slowly, but a quick review of historical lake levels provides some defense of the Corps cautious approach to managing levels in Folsom Lake at this point in the year.  In two of the years that come up on the default graph (1977-1978 and 1982-1983), the lake went from very close to where it is now to near or beyond capacity by June 1st.   So, while the manual may be based on data prior to construction, the reality of post-drought years since the dam has been in service has shown that caution to be prudent. Furthermore, the lake is currently at 116% of average for this time of year.  With the current snow pack near average and more predicted to be on the way, releases now seem reasonable, keeping in mind that flood control is the primary mission of Folsom Dam. That's why they are spending a billion dollars on a spillway and other improvements, so they can safely retain more water during the winter as you would like. And they have done lots of analysis to come up with the operations manual that will go into affect next year when it is complete, so it would be a poor use of taxpayers money to spend a bunch of it re-evaluating the operations when they will change in a year. And it is an el-nino year, a year when very wet, very warm storms are likely, exactly the scenario for which Folsom's operation has been set up. Remember, They nearly lost control of the dam in 1986(?); that wasn't that long ago, and the operations were revised after that to make sure they didn't get into that situation again. Remember, it's only mid-February. There are at least six more weeks of potentially rainy weather. A few warm, sunny days don't end winter, even if the trees seems to think they did.

 

It is also worth noting that, while Folsom Lake is the poster child of the drought, there are seven larger reservoirs in the state, all of which are still below average for this time of year and not releasing more than the bare minimum at this point. What happens at Folsom is generally representative of the overall situation, but is much more volatile.

[hwh]

Yes, it’s true. In spite of the fact that we’re in the midst of a drought, Folsom dam operators may soon be forced to start releasing water down the American River.

 

The problem is that a legal winter capacity limit was established following a near flood disaster in 1986, and since then, operators must release water if the capacity rises above 59%, or 577,000 acre feet. As of midnight, it was at 558,000 acre feet, or 57%, and rising at a rate of 500 acre feet per hour.

 

It could reach the legal limit within the next 2 days.

 

When the new dyke and spillway projects are complete, the lake will have added protection and become more efficient at holding and releasing water, preventing this from happening again. In the meantime, despite the drought, they have to send water down the river.

 

Understood, but as the remaining precip season shrinks, so too should the room needed for flood capacity, and the max lake level should be allowed to rise.   

[2 Aces]

In a perfect world the max lake level would be allowed to rise once the rain season is gone, but don't forget about the *environmental* reasons they dump water. After all, we're in Calif where we save the delta smelt, save the delta, save a frog, etc, and waste perfectly good, fresh water.

Blame the pinheads under the dome in Sacramento.

[SacKen]

In a perfect world the max lake level would be allowed to rise once the rain season is gone, but don't forget about the *environmental* reasons they dump water. After all, we're in Calif where we save the delta smelt, save the delta, save a frog, etc, and waste perfectly good, fresh water.

Blame the pinheads under the dome in Sacramento.

Calm down there, Skippy.  The believe the current 59% capacity limit for this time of year was set after 1986 when we almost had a NOLA type disaster.  That event happened in late February.  In 1995, major rain and flooding came in March.  So your "once the rainy season is gone" gripe is moot in early Feb.

 

<mutters under breath> effing people... I tell ya...

[2 Aces]

Calm down there, Skippy.  The believe the current 59% capacity limit for this time of year was set after 1986 when we almost had a NOLA type disaster.  That event happened in late February.  In 1995, major rain and flooding came in March.  So your "once the rainy season is gone" gripe is moot in early Feb.
 
<mutters under breath> effing people... I tell ya...

Calm down there, Junior.

I said that ONCE THE RAINY SEASON IS GONE...you are quoting months considered to be IN THE RAINY SEASON.

 

This should *not* be difficult for you to grasp...unless reading comprehension isn't your strong suit.

[tony]

Calm down there, Junior.

I said that ONCE THE RAINY SEASON IS GONE...you are quoting months considered to be IN THE RAINY SEASON.

 

This should *not* be difficult for you to grasp...unless reading comprehension isn't your strong suit.

Yes, but in defense of Sacken, this thread started with people complaining because water was being released now, during the rainy season, to provide room for flood control. 

[tony]

Understood, but as the remaining precip season shrinks, so too should the room needed for flood capacity, and the max lake level should be allowed to rise.   

..and it does, but we are currently still smack in the middle of rainy season, with a snow pack expected to grow. I don't know the exact metric, but if you look at the average year, the water level continues to rise until about June 1st. In wet years, they seem to keep the level near where it is now until about March 1st, after which they start allowing it to fill more, or that's when it starts filling on it's own in those years.. 

[2 Aces]

Yes, but in defense of Sacken, this thread started with people complaining because water was being released now, during the rainy season, to provide room for flood control. 

I never disputed that. I was responding to hwh's post. You guys are trolling for an argument...are you guys bored ??

[ducky]

If you have the time and want to see something we haven't seen for a while, walk, jog, or bicycle over the dam trail where more spillways will open today.