Rich,
I'm not a Water Expert, but definitely an enthusiast. You are correct that 80% of our water is being used for agriculture. It is a $45B annual industry for the state (http://sacramento.cb...revenue-record/). Some crops require more water than others (http://www.arb.ca.go...tain/hanson.pdf), particularly alfalfa, tree fruits and nuts, rice, corn, and cotton. According to the linked presentation, alfalfa uses way more water than everything else, and 70% of it is used to feed dairy cattle. So we are using a lot of water to keep our cows happy. Also, many farms still use inefficient irrigation methods (i.e. flooding fields, sprinklers) instead of highly-efficient drip. The problem is that many of these water-hungry crops are barely profitable for farmers and already receive many government subsidies.
A very good read about the West Coast's water struggles is the book Cadillac Desert by the late Marc Reisner. (http://www.amazon.co...d/dp/0140178244). I haven't read the book in its entirety, but the main premise he argues is that residential water usage pales in comparison to agricultural use, and farmers have taken advantage of really low water prices, which have been federal taxpayer subsidized via the California Water Project and Central Valley Project, and have little incentive to conserve. Whereas, urban users pay a higher price per acre foot of water, and have a greater conservation incentive.
IMHO, if we want to conserve water and maintain CA's ag industry, farmers should follow free-market economics and instead of planting the low-margin, water-hungry crops in dry regions, replace them with less-thirsty and/or higher-profitable crops such as vineyards, and also upgrade to drip irrigation. The thirstier crops should be reserved for coastal regions. It may also involve reducing government subsidies for corn, cotton, meat, and dairy.
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Here's my take. If the figures I have read in articles are correct, then 80% of California's water usage is for agriculture, 10% is for other business, and 10% is for residential use (of which I would imagine 70% or more is in dry Southern California). If so, then 3% of California's water usage is from Northern California residential usage, and most of that is in the SF Bay Area including Silicon Valley. The Sacramento region's residents are probably using less than 1% of California's water. As such, our water restrictions, while in the proper spirit, are not going to amount to any noticeable difference.
Therefore, the only real solutions are either (1) get more water via desalinization projects (with some environmental downside), or (2) vastly reduce California's agriculture, and move it to places that have more water. After all, isn't that the economic concept of "comparitive advantage"? The downside is that a key strategic item (food) will have to be imported, with (maybe) a higher consumer cost. But otherwise the government is just propping up an unviable industry that sucks water away from residents, and which has also imported a huge Mexican population with associated costs that have been externalized to California residents. However, if solution (1) can be made effective, then we wouldn't need to consider (2).
In any case, whether we take short or long showers is not going to move the needle.
I'd like to read what some water experts among us have to say on this topic.