131 replies to this topic

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Two recent studies show sea level rise is accelerating rapidly, and it is the result of burning carbon fuels. 

 

http://www.pnas.org/.../13508.abstract

 

http://news.rutgers....17#.Vs63BGn2a70

 

There are two ways to look at this:

 

1)  On a planetary survival scale, it's not a big deal.  The planet has been through this before.  Some species perished, some new species appeared.  Life went on.  The planet survived.  The planet will survive again.

 

2)  By human societal and economic measures, this will be a monumental disaster.  $69B worth of real estate in Florida will be at risk by 2030.  By 2100, over $400B will be at risk in Florida.  We saw the results of beach and cliff erosion in Pacifica, CA last month where seaside apartments had to be abandon as more aggressive seas caused the land under them to collapse.  Frequent tidal flooding is already causing significant problems for low lying municipalities such as Washington DC, Annapolis, MD, Miami, FL, Portland, ME, Freeport, TX, and many other coastal cities.  Estimates are that 20-25% of the US population will be materially or financially affected by sea level rise in some way by 2100.

 

The sad part about this whole thing is that humans (as they always do) are willing to trade short term gain for long term disaster.  The oil companies need to make their profit numbers for the next quarter without regard to what their actions will cause 50 or 100 years down the road.

 

The good news is that the mean elevation of Folsom is 220 ft above sea level.  We will be spared from the sea level changes.  And a trip to the beach in 2100 should be little a bit shorter.   

[The Average Joe]

Ridiculous claims. of 2 to 4 feet of sea level increase in a century. I would suggest that his "new model" is faulty based on the plethora of other models that predict a few inches of rise per century. Even the IPCC only predicts inches of rise.  Heck, his 5 inch margin of error for the 20th century basically equals his (supposedly) 5 inch rise during that period. I don't want a "model" for data, I want actual data.Whenever I read a "scientific " article or abstract that is filled with words like "could" or "might", i realize I am dealing with garbage.  Science is based on fact, not supposition. There is ZERO evidence for his claim about fossil fuels driving the rise.  What a Hack.

 

Just more sky is falling bogus claims based on flimsy evidence. Yawn.

 

9.9 meters in 100 years. NEVER. GONNA. HAPPEN. 

For real science, try satellite data:

 

"...and after correcting for glacial isostatic adjustment, the estimated rate of rise is 3.2 ± 0.4 mm year⁻¹ from the satellite data and 2.8 ± 0.8 mm year⁻¹ from the in situ data. The global average sea-level rise from 1880 to 2009 is about 210 mm. The linear trend from 1900 to 2009 is 1.7 ± 0.2 mm year⁻¹and since 1961 is 1.9 ± 0.4 mm year⁻¹

 

 

i wonder about the "corrections" as i always do. Even their high end forcast is 3.6 mm per year, or around 14 inches per century. The low end of the in situ data is right on the linear trend at around 2 mm per year or about 8 inches. Which is coincidentally about what it rose the last 100 years. Meh. Much ado about nothing.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Joe - A little disappointed that you chose to challenge a few pieces of data. The theme of my post was that sea level rise and tidal flooding are occurring today...now. And they will consume huge amounts of resources that neither the gov't nor private citizens are prepared to deal with. In 2015, fifty two cities or communities along the east and gulf coasts have had to divert resources they could ill afford to deal with the effects of tidal flooding. The incidence of tidal flooding has been increasing over the last two decades, and is predicted to increase at a more rapid rate going forward. This is going to strain the financial resources of coastal cities dramatically.

Fortunately, we in Calif actually think ahead about situations like this. As an example, San Francisco has started to set aside funds to build dykes around SFO airport before the rising water covers the runways at high tide. Runways 28R and 28L are literally 2.9 ft above the mean sea level reference established in the year 2000. It's predicted that by 2030 portions of these runways will be underwater 3-5 times a month due to tidal flooding. Enough to interrupt operations. I don't think people appreciate how much of a problem this will be. In the USA, tidal flooding will turn $Billions of beach-front property into surfing and scuba diving spots worth $0. It's gonna be ugly.

Aces - just some quick advice. I'm extremely flattered that you want to make the conversation about me. That's all you talked about in your post. Truth told, I'm nothing special, just a grumpy old guy. In the future, I suggest you try to keep on the topic. If you don't find it interesting, then move to another forum topic. There are hundreds. Just a suggestion.

[4thgenFolsomite]

Those who still deny climate change are ignoring the actual changes occurring now. It's not speculation, it's actually happening and we can see it. I used to live in Alaska and the changes there are unprecedented. And the changes that are happening are happening much faster then even the most aggressive scientist predicted in the 1970s. I wish it was true that this change is in reality just a political liberal left myth, but we are living it. Almost every week we hear about a new record warm temperature even here in our own neighborhood. When a record is broken that is something that should make us take notice. Something that is a record means it's never happened before and we've exceeded it. While we may not have salt water lapping at our shores along Lake Natoma, that doesn't mean that we won't be significantly impacted here in Folsom. We're going to lose species. We're going to lose incredibly valuable agricultural land, we're going to see saltwater intrusion into water systems that provide freshwater for not just agriculture, but also for cities throughout the central valley, ithere are going to be changes in ways we can't even begin to anticipate and certainly don't have the money to mitigate completely. Personally I treasure seeing the Canada geese, ducks, hummingbirds and the other migratory birds that come through each year. I love wild salmon and have watched it gradually declined from a common affordable fish to a specialty treat. I think forests throughout California are some of the most spectacular environmental settings in the world. All of these things are going to change, are going to be disappearing, are actually disappearing now. We are going to have far less in the way of food selection and quality, and what we get will be more expensive. It's happening right now, it's not just in the future, we're in the middle of it. And that is just on the local level . We're a state in the country that has a financial means to be able to protect ourselves somewhat from what's going to happen. Most other countries are going to be hit far worse and are also in a far worse position to be able to react and take care of their citizens. As a result I think the unrest is going to spread and amplify, refugees are going to overwhelm other nations, and the confusion and conflict worldwide will increase, not decrease. The future has giant challenges ahead. But I hope you're right, I really really hope this is just a political myth.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

4thgen - sadly, you are correct.  Climate change is reality and there is growing evidence that human activity is a major contributor.  And what is our global society doing about it?  Fossil fuel production is increasing at such a high rate that it's flooding the markets and the price of oil has decreased by 60% in the last year.  Corporate interests have petitioned the USSC to stay Obama's clean power generation initiatives, which it actually did two weeks ago.  Millions of tons of methane gas are released into the atmosphere due to carelessness at a storage facility in SoCal.  And then or course, there are the folks who deny that any climate change is underway at all, or say that it may be underway but it's "no big deal".   

 

Every year that passes, more and more data will be collected that shows climate change is real, and unfortunately, human caused.  One side effect of this will be that the deniers will be relegated to an ever receding position of scientific ignorance.  At that point, maybe we'll get serious about addressing it.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Aces - I actually did read the article you posted, and found it quite uninteresting.  The guy is complaining about sensationalism that happened 6-10 years ago regarding human caused climate change.  It's old news.  Perhaps this fellow should get out more and go visit the 52 cities that are experiencing increasing frequency of tidal flooding, and how they plan to cope with it.  All the crap 10 years ago with Al Gore and his overhyped film have already given way to reality.  Gore doesn't matter any more.  We are now able to witness the effects of global warming in real time.  It's no longer hype.  It's now a fact.

[apeman45]

Totally uninteresting op ed piece you cited ACES.  No facts other than a few useless population statistics.  One guys random thoughts and opinions with no scientific basis.  What a waste of my time.  I've got to get back to my socialism rally.

[Chris]

Hey GoG, as a student of history, a Geologist, and just a plain common sense guy please stop scaring the sheep.   People, don't listen to this guys propaganda.   Folks, ever watch the movie "300"....?   Great movie..!   Battle of the Hot Gates (Thermopylae) back about 480 BC.  People, look at where the ocean was then and where it is now.  A little plate tectonics and receding oceans since then put the shore where....?  This has happened countless times in countless places.  Stop scaring people with BS.  The climate always changes, oceans rise and fall, land goes up and down, the climate always will change, that is how it works.....   Man has nothing to do with it at all, we're not that important to this planet.  Chris

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Aces - the most recent link you posted is also uninteresting.  Just some random musings from a guy with no real scientific background.  Just for fun, I looked for the occurrence of these words in his piece - should, would, could, perhaps, might, may.  They occurred 17 times.  Not a good feature for a technical paper.  It's an opinion piece on the hype that has surrounded global warming issue for the past decade.  Please understand one simple reality - THE HYPE DOESN'T MATTER ANY MORE.  Who said it, what they said or tried to inflate, what the press did with it, whatever efforts were made to make things look worse than what they were - NONE OF IT MATTERS ANY MORE. 

 

And here's why - we are seeing the effects of global warming every day now.  The reality is here.  And although it may not be exactly what all the hype artists from a decade ago (think Gore) said it would be, there is no doubt in anyone's mind that there is something different going on with the climate.  And most of what is going on is not in positive directions.  Weather extremes are increasing, tidal flooding events are increasing, temperature records are being broken, events of nature are changing, sea levels are rising, glaciers are disappearing, great rivers are flooding in December, and all of it is at higher rates every year.  These aren't predictions, they aren't hype, they aren't scientific projections, they aren't future probabilities.  THEY ARE TODAY'S REALITY.  We can go watch them happen before our very eyes.  With real events like this appearing on an almost daily basis, what was said 5 or 10 years ago (either positive or negative) DOESN'T MATTER ANY MORE. 

 

My point is very simple.  Climate change is going to create huge financial burdens for the USA and for the world.  Burdens for which no one has prepared. 

 

If you keep up your rant about how everyone is being deceived on climate change by all the hype artists, you run the risk of being compared to Baghdad Bob during the Iraq war.  He was the guy on Iraqi TV who was proclaiming all the tremendous victories of the Iraqi army and how they were winning battles on every front and driving the Americans from every corner of Iraq.  And during his TV broadcast, American tanks were driving up and down the street behind him, not more than ten feet from where he was standing.  He was clearly unaware of reality.  Don't be like him.

 

I'm with apeman and need to get back to my commie, socialist, kool-aid drinking, leftist, atheist, Marxist rally scheduled for this afternoon.

[GrumpyOldGuy]

Chris,  the theme of my posts is singular - No one is prepared for the financial impact of climate changes. 

 

You're like Aces.  The two of you can't get past all the hype and BS that's been flying around for the past decade. 

 

Some advice...get over it.  Climate change is happening now with substantial financial consequences and it will get worse.  Most are not prepared for it.  Serious problems will follow.

[Chris]

Chris,  the theme of my posts is singular - No one is prepared for the financial impact of climate changes. 

 

You're like Aces.  The two of you can't get past all the hype and BS that's been flying around for the past decade. 

 

Some advice...get over it.  Climate change is happening now with substantial financial consequences and it will get worse.  Most are not prepared for it.  Serious problems will follow.

Hey GoG, you got your arse handed to you in your other "global warming thread" so give it a rest for your own good........   Funny how you let that one die off......?  You lost the argument big time there and you will lose it here.......  Did not respond to factual postings by others..........?   How come....?   Can't stand the real data...?   Can't stand the actual science and facts....?  Are you shilling for the dems and hillary in the next election...?   Address the facts below, in this chart, and tell me man made CO2 is the problem.  And if you do, you are a fool indeed.  Oh yes, and the Hot Gates, you failed to address that........  Typical............!   Chris

 

Address the following chart or for ever hold your peace........  

 

 

 

50 million years ago, CO2 at about 500 ppm...
100 million years ago, CO2 at about 1800 ppm....
200 million years ago, CO2 at about 1500 ppm....
300 million years ago, CO2 at about 300 ppm....
400 million years ago, CO2 at about 3500 ppm...
500 million years ago, CO2 at about 4800 ppm....

[2 Aces]

I'm mad at myself for trying to reason with ignorant, factless, Kool-Aid-drinking trolls.

It brings to mind the saying, "don't get in the mud with a pig...you'll get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it".

I'm not saying he is a pig. I reserve that word for the Clinton family.

Time to ignore the whiners and trolls and their childish, constant cry of global warming devastation oh my God be afraid we're all doomed chicken little hide under the bed paranoia. Smoking too much dope or drinking too much will make you believe all kinds of stupid stuff.

[apeman45]

Typical Ace contribution.  No logic, no data, not even really an argument or a point.  Just insults.  

 

Hey 2Aces.  Why did you remove the 2 postings of links to the articles you posted?  I know they were outrageously unscientific and pure opinion but to censure yourself says a lot about how incapable you are of forming an opinion that you can attempt to back up rationally without attacking others.

 

Well here is a little bio of the scientific expert you cited earlier and have since deleted.  As you can see he is a highly qualified climate change expert.  I can see why you were a little embarrassed referencing him as an expert.  I would have removed that post as well and gone with my old standby - attack and ridicule.  It does make me feel good!

http://ezinearticles...icatano/1987097

 

Whether you want to ignore climate change and rising oceans you can't argue that the competition for resources at the global level will continue to be an issue.  That coincidental drought, unprecedented wintertime flooding, more and powerful tornadoes and cyclones, melting ice shelfs and ever increasing record temperatures doesn't have to be attributed to climate change or CO2 levels.  It is happening!  The global impacts caused by famines, mass movements of people and war is coming even if Chris posts his CO2 graph 100 more times.  We can bury our heads in the sand and do nothing or we can fix some of the problems now at a much lower cost and save millions of lives and give future generations something to live for.  

 

Think about it.  The reason groups like ISIS are successful is the people they terrorize have nothing to live for.  When the resources run out that will be the case for all of us.  Not a very bright future.

[Chris]

Typical Ace contribution.  No logic, no data, not even really an argument or a point.  Just insults.  

 

Hey 2Aces.  Why did you remove the 2 postings of links to the articles you posted?  I know they were outrageously unscientific and pure opinion but to censure yourself says a lot about how incapable you are of forming an opinion that you can attempt to back up rationally without attacking others.

 

Well here is a little bio of the scientific expert you cited earlier and have since deleted.  As you can see he is a highly qualified climate change expert.  I can see why you were a little embarrassed referencing him as an expert.  I would have removed that post as well and gone with my old standby - attack and ridicule.  It does make me feel good!

http://ezinearticles...icatano/1987097

 

Whether you want to ignore climate change and rising oceans you can't argue that the competition for resources at the global level will continue to be an issue.  That coincidental drought, unprecedented wintertime flooding, more and powerful tornadoes and cyclones, melting ice shelfs and ever increasing record temperatures doesn't have to be attributed to climate change or CO2 levels.  It is happening!  The global impacts caused by famines, mass movements of people and war is coming even if Chris posts his CO2 graph 100 more times.  We can bury our heads in the sand and do nothing or we can fix some of the problems now at a much lower cost and save millions of lives and give future generations something to live for.  

 

Think about it.  The reason groups like ISIS are successful is the people they terrorize have nothing to live for.  When the resources run out that will be the case for all of us.  Not a very bright future.

Apeman...  You totally have drank the cool aid or did not pay attention in your Geology courses.....?   Answer to the below but ever hold your opinion as it will not matter...   Come on dude, do the science....!   Look at the numbers...!    Chris

 

50 million years ago, CO2 at about 500 ppm...
100 million years ago, CO2 at about 1800 ppm....
200 million years ago, CO2 at about 1500 ppm....
300 million years ago, CO2 at about 300 ppm....
400 million years ago, CO2 at about 3500 ppm...
500 million years ago, CO2 at about 4800 ppm....

[The Average Joe]

Disappointed I challenged a few pieces of data? What do you think makes science work? Reliable and correct data. Of course I attacked the "science." It was garbage, with garbage claims. The whole premise falls completely apart when you look at actual data instead of the authors inferred measurements (any one of which could have a huge margin of error). Proxies are ok to a point (some more than others), but generally have big error bars. When you add multiple proxies with multiple error bars and try to claim that established ACTUAL measurements are off by an order of magnitude, I call bs.

 

I can't say this often enough apparently. Nothing "unprecedented" is going on here. There is not more extreme weather happening. There are not more or stronger hurricanes. There are not more or stronger tornadoes. At all. There is ZERO evidence that man is causing the little climate change we are seeing. Climate changes. Duh. The little ice age (LIA) 700 years ago was "unprecedented" for the people at the time. It was not caused by them, nor was it unusual. The same is true of the medieval warm period, which by the way saw society flourish as opposed the the LIA where famine and disease were rampant. A warm world is not the "average" for the planet. We should thank our lucky stars we live in a warm (and warming) inter-glacial period.

 

Climate It is not accelerating at an "unprecedented" or increasing rate. Any HONEST scientist or even layperson should understand that the raw data does not support the theory of increasing extreme weather, cataclysmically changing climate, or "unprecedented" events.  Much of the raw data comes from a few weather stations  (many of which are incredibly poorly sited), with MASSIVE "infill" of extrapolated data (covering up to 1 million square kilometers). As any of you with a temperature gauge in your car can testify, if you move your measurement  half a mile down the road, you can have a few degree swing. Measuring station are "adjusted" to cover THOUSANDS of square miles. Most of the stations are in industrialized countries which further biases the measurements. Those measurements are then "adjusted by differing agencies who have a financial stake in the result. "Coincidentally," 100% of the adjustments result in increasing the rate of warming.

 

Let's look at the siting for just one weather station in Arizona (it is the white spool looking thing on a stick to the left mid). Here's a challenge kiddies. How many issues can you see with this weather station siting? Hmm. Brick building? Check. A/C heat exchangers? Check. Paved road? Check. Parking lot? Check.  This is not uncommon!! Do you think any measurement might be impacted? Especially at night due to huge heat sinks around it (most claims of warming is based on a raised minimum temperature, not raised maximum temperature). Our own Marysville site is horribly located as well. Ever hear of UHI? The Urban Heat Island effect?

 

Ever hear of the term garbage in, garbage out? That is what the GW scientists do. They artificially cool the 1930's data, then artificially inflate the 1990s data to make a graph fit their preconceptions. Same with the famed hockeystick which ignored the LIA and MWP. Can't allow inconvenient data to ruin a good PR stunt!!  An Inconvenient truth indeed!

 

As far as coastal cities. Meh. There are thousands of sites all over the world of ancient cities now underwater. And hundreds of cities long abandoned that were once quite substantial.  Change comes over time and people adapt. We build our cities on earthquake faults and in the middle of tornado alley as well as below sea level and next to rivers and the sea. None of them will last forever. Poor planning on the city developers part is not a crisis on my part. Cough-Natomas-cough.

 

Does a person stay the same through his life?  Does a tree? Does a river? Or mountain? NO. The Earth itself is ever-changing and will be perfectly fine whether we drive an SUV or a Prius. Well, it will be fine for around 4 billion years, then it will become a charred husk of a planet.

 

If you want to make hysterical claims about unprecedented this or that and extreme this or that, you will have to back it up with DATA, not hyperbole.

 

I'm out. It's tiring banging your head against an ideological wall.